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Are Key Commodities Decoupling from Equities?

After a long weekend, the market action on January 16th held some surprises.

The Bullish Trends, or gainers, were the dollar and — here is the surprise for some — many different commodities. The Bearish Trends, or losers, were foreign currencies, long bonds, and (not shown on the chart) US equity indexes.

To be fair, there were many commodities that did not perform well. Natural gas, following a spectacular run, fell hard, as did gold, wheat, soybean oil, and aluminum.

Two commodities, those being the ones we track the most for signs of any reignition of inflation, did okay to great.

Why do we focus on silver to gold ratio and sugar futures? As stated over the weekend, silver futures have been experiencing narrower trading ranges. “With higher lows since October, the recent support at $22.50 an ounce, if it holds, could mean this week is the week we start to see this metal shine.” Well today, silver futures had an inside day and outperformed gold, which fell about $19.00 to $2,032.

Silver held $23.00 and the underlying support level. All things considered, gold also held near-term support at $2029. However, we are yet to see silver outperform gold, so we watch.

Sugar cleared 22 cents a pound, closing at 22.52. Coffee and cocoa rallied as well. So, it was a big day for the softs.

Going back to the notion that that today could be the start of the decoupling, we need to see more. But, we are paying attention.


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Follow Mish on X @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.


Mish in the Media

Mish presents a three part market outlook in these videos from CMC Markets. In the first, Mish gives you a thorough outlook on which areas to invest in for 2024 in just four and half minutes. Then, she examines whether the S&P 500 can keep rallying, and finally, she investigates where 2024 could be the year of the heavy metals.

Mish offers her thoughts on a number of commodities ahead of the US CPI data announcement in this appearance on CMC Markets.

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish continues with her analysis on gold, oil and gas, this time adding the dollar/yen currency pair and her outlook on the dollar longer term.

Mish talks how the January effect will reveal itself and her focus on the vanity trade in this appearance on Business First AM.

Mish covers oil, gold, natural gas, silver and sugar, plus teaches you how to use charts to determine short-term trading strategies in this video from CMC Markets.

Mish and Maggie Lake discuss inflation (given the wage component in the payroll report), Bitcoin (given the looming deadline for ETF news), the market outlook, small caps, and emerging markets on this video from Real Vision.

Mish covers war, energy, food and a pick of the day on Business First AM.

On the Tuesday, January 2 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, Mish (starting at 22:21) talks small caps, retail, junk, and why all three matter in 2024 a lot.

In this appearance on BNN Bloomberg, Mish talks a particularly interesting chart, plus other places to invest in 2024.

In this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish talks with Cheryl Casone about Bitcoin’s volatility and why EVs may not be such a great place to invest in right now.

Recorded on December 28, Mish talks about themes for 2024 to look for, and tells you where to focus, what to buy, and what to avoid depending on economic and market conditions on Singapore Breakfast Bites.

Mish sits down with 2 other market experts to help you prepare for 2024 with predictions, picks, and technical analysis in StockCharts TV’s Charting Forward special.


Coming Up:

January 17: StockCharts TV, January Calendar Ranges

January 22: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

January 24: Yahoo! Finance

January 25: Live Coaching

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets


ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 480 all-time highs, 460 underlying support.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 195 pivotal, 180 major support.
  • Dow (DIA): Needs to hold 370.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 408 now the immediate pivotal number with 405 support.
  • Regional Banks (KRE): Failed 50, but not by too much at this point.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): The winner again.
  • Transportation (IYT): Needs to hold 250.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 135 pivotal support.
  • Retail (XRT): To maintain a bullish stance, this should hold 65 and get back over 70.00.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

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